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April 8, 2025

April 8, 2025

Overnight strikes on Gaza have killed twenty-five people, according to local health authorities, including eight children and five women. Moreover, fifty-eight bodies have been brought into Palestinian hospitals over the past day.


Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that Gazan "civilians are in an endless death loop" and, referencing Israel's recent ceasefire proposal that included that Israel would have control over humanitarian aid flowing into Gaza, added, "Let me be clear: We will not participate in any arrangement that does not fully respect the humanitarian principles: humanity, impartiality, independence, and neutrality." The IDF has enforced a blockade on all humanitarian aid moving into Gaza for the past several weeks, placing conditions of starvation on the populace.


In the sixth attack on Lebanon over the past forty-eight hours, the IDF struck a Hezbollah military weapons depot in Bekaa Valley.


A senior Hezbollah official has reportedly announced, "Hezbollah is ready to discuss the matter of its arms if Israel withdraws from the five points, and halts its aggression against Lebanese." If true, it could lead to a new era for Lebanon and the region. Even if Hezbollah were to disarm, it would almost certainly retain its role as a major political entity in Lebanon. However, some in the Israeli Security Cabinet may be averse to withdrawing from southern Lebanon due to a general mistrust of Hezbollah to conform to its agreements and of Beirut to enforce them.


PM Salam announced that he is endorsing the previous government's plan for the disarmament of Hezbollah. He also stated, "The army is playing a major role in south Lebanon, and things are going in the right direction." At the moment, successful disarmament seems unlikely, given the previous government's inaction and the current one's aversion to the use of force on the matter.


Lebanese Technology Minister Shehadeh said, "The coming months will witness our success in implementing Lebanon's international obligations. The national security strategy calls for monopolizing weapons in the hands of the state, as mentioned in the ministerial statement…the government pledged in its policy statement to approve a national security strategy, and this is not subject to dialogue or to wasting time."


UNIFIL chief Lt. Gen. Aroldo Lázaro Sáenz stated that the shift in the balance of power in southern Lebanon may now allow for a more permanent ceasefire to be implemented. However, he acknowledged that "this may still take a long time." He added that dealing with Hezbollah should be exclusively the responsibility of the Lebanese government and UNIFIL, that is to say, not that of Israel. He also noted that UNIFIL's tenure in southern Lebanon is being undermined by growing misinformation and disinformation, creating a need for "a strong fact-based narrative."


According to a Saudi news source, Hezbollah is reportedly resorting to the port of Beirut as a source of procuring funds and materiel from Iran. Historically, it has used the Rafic Hariri Airport and the "land bridge" of smuggling through Iraq and Syria for this purpose, but both have become significantly less viable over the past year.


A Lebanese judge has referred former Banque du Liban chief Riad Salameh to a court for trial on the embezzlement of $44 million of bank assets. Once seen as a financial genius, Salameh was disgraced for these embezzlement accusations, other charges, and the country's economic collapse in 2019.


Israeli sources indicate that Israel and Türkiye are currently holding direct talks on the issue of the recent move to install Turkish forces in the T4 base in Syria. Trump told a press conference he held jointly with Netanyahu that he would help Israel resolve any outstanding issues with Türkiye. Reports indicate the talks focus on a "deconfliction zone" in Syria to avoid major conflict.


A new source linked to Hezbollah claimed that the US has been silently reducing its presence in Kurdish-held northeastern Syria over the past few weeks, especially along the Euphrates, transferring material assets and personnel positioned in Syria under Operation Inherent Resolve to Iraq. Although held back by security advisors, Trump has previously expressed interest in withdrawing from Syria, which would significantly shift the balance of power in the region and potentially leave a power vacuum that organizations like ISIS may exploit to take advantage of a Syrian state still under assembly. Further, it appears something of a reversal of previous agreements to withdraw from Iraq, which may indicate that the US recognizes a coming shift in Iraqi politics away from the Shi'ite bloc and towards a coalition likely to be more accommodating of American forces. The Kurdish SDF forces have denied that they have observed any withdrawal of American troops from the country.


PM Salam and interim PM al-Sharaa shared a call recently, after which the former remarked that he was hopeful for the future of the two countries' relationship. Syrian-Lebanese relations have been strained for decades, notably on the lasting issue of border demarcation, drug, arms, and human smuggling across the border, and the previous regime's support for Hezbollah. Tensions recently came to a head with a confrontation between the Syrian Defense Ministry and Lebanese clans in the border region involved in smuggling.


Damascus has recalled its ambassadors to Riyadh and Moscow today amid a broad turnover of Syria's diplomatic corps. Syria and Saudi Arabia are now experiencing perhaps their warmest relations in decades following the Assad regime's collapse. Saudi Arabia now looks to form relations with the new governments in Syria and Lebanon to restore historically strained relations and form protections against Iranian influence, following a major decline in the Axis of Resistance's regional power over the past year. Meanwhile, Syria and Russia share somewhat colder relations. Russia was the greatest ally of the Assad government and currently holds Assad in sanctuary following his secretive flight from Damascus at HTS' and other rebel movements' approach last December. However, the new HTS-led government in Syria has declared a policy of "standing at an equal distance from all," meaning it will likely not choose to close the door on diplomacy with Russia and has allowed Moscow to retain a limited presence in the country's western provinces. This presence provides the Russian military with access to the eastern Mediterranean, meaning NATO's Bosphorus-Dardanelles chokepoint is significantly less inhibitive on the Russian Navy's access to southern Europe and northern Africa: something Russia greatly desires to ensure the longevity of its influence in the region. Reports indicate that the Kremlin began looking to transfer these assets to Libya should the new government force Russian forces out.


Following the previous Shin Bet chief's replacement, PM Netanyahu's relationship with the new chief soured quickly. However, the Israeli Supreme Court has ruled today that Netanyahu cannot dismiss the new chief for at least another twelve days. Netanyahu shrugged off the ruling and announced that he would continue interviewing candidates for the chief's replacement.


Israel has closed all UNRWA schools in East Jerusalem in the most recent development in the country's campaign against the UN agency administering Palestinian refugees. These schools served 800 city students who will likely not finish the academic year.


The US has deployed a third B-2 stealth bomber fleet to the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean, which has been recognized as the largest deployment of these bombers in US history. The move is widely seen as a posturing move amid tensions with Iran on the nuclear file.


The Trump Administration has ended funding for the UN's World Food Program, which provides food to impoverished areas of several countries, including Syria, Palestine, and Yemen. WFP responded on social media, "This could amount to a death sentence for millions of people facing extreme hunger and starvation."

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