French President Macron stated on Wednesday, “We must move towards recognition, and we will do so in the coming months.” Israeli FM Sa’ar claimed in response to the announcement, “A unilateral recognition of a fictional Palestinian state, by any country, in the reality that we all know, will be a prize for terror and a boost for Hamas.”

An Israeli official claimed that Israel has no interest in annexing or permanently occupying Lebanese territory but “is monitoring Hezbollah's attempts to rebuild its capabilities in south Lebanon, particularly by establishing observation posts in southern villages” and will not be withdrawing until Hezbollah has disarmed. If Hezbollah remains intent on negotiating its disarmament as it previously claimed, it appears that Hezbollah would only agree to disarmament after Israel has already withdrawn. As mentioned in a previous report, a major factor inhibiting a resolution in this case is a lack of trust that either side will fulfill their obligations.

Hezbollah has officially denied that it is willing to negotiate its disarmament if Israel completes its withdrawal from southern Lebanon: “Those allegations are totally baseless.” Noting that the statement claiming as much came from an a senior official, it added, “as it has become known, there are no sources in Hezbollah and its stances are exclusively issued through official statements released by Hezbollah’s media relations unit or through the remarks of its officials who hold official or partisan posts.” Regardless, it appears that political efforts continue to push for negotiated disarmament.

Lebanese MP Michel Mousa from the Amal-led Development and Liberation bloc stated that the government is working on plans for the disarmament of Hezbollah, adding, “The cabinet will play the biggest executive role in this regard, in cooperation with the Lebanese Army.”

Reportedly, US envoy to the Middle East Ortagus is expected to tell President Aoun that he must progress efforts for the disarmament of Hezbollah to gain access to financial assets from Saudi Arabia to fund the government.

During a press conference yesterday, Trump told reporters that Israel would lead any military attack on Iran if negotiations on the nuclear file fail: “But with Iran, if it requires military, we’re going to have military. Israel will obviously be very much involved in that — they’ll be the leader of that.” There are reports that Israel has been preparing plans for a preemptive attack on Iran should they move ahead with efforts at developing a nuclear weapon, meaning the threat is likely credible. Further, if Israel were to be the main component of any military action against Iran, it would likely be a strategic move to avoid any broader conflict. Israel and Iran have traded massive waves of airstrikes in two military crises since 2023, meaning the crisis would likely fade out. Further, Tehran would likely prefer direct confrontation against Israel than the United States in retaliation to any military action, and if the attack is largely composed of Israeli capabilities, Iranian leadership would likely have justification for retaliating against Israel instead of American forces. Regardless, we would likely see some confrontation of American capabilities in Iraq, Syria, and the Red Sea from members of the Axis of Resistance, especially from the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, the Syrian Popular Resistance, and the Houthis. As for Israel, confrontation with Iran would likely play to the detriment of ceasefire negotiations with Hamas and its push for the disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Just days ahead of scheduled negotiations in Oman, the United States Treasury Department has issued new sanctions on Iran, especially on the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. The Treasury Department stated, “The Iranian regime’s reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons remains a grave threat to the United States and a menace to regional stability and global security.”