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Myanmar’s Civil War: A Nation in Crisis

Crimes against humanity, a deepening hunger crisis and more than 2,600 rebel groups: Myanmar’s civil war is both brutal and bewildering. Here's a closer look.


Andreas Babst    

February 7, 2025

Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, at a military parade in the capital Naypyidaw in March 2021 – one month after orchestrating the coup that toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratic government. © Reuters
Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, at a military parade in the capital Naypyidaw in March 2021 – one month after orchestrating the coup that toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratic government. © Reuters

Summary

  

  • The military coup in Myanmar on Feb. 1, 2021, has sparked an ongoing civil war between the military junta and over 2,600 rebel groups.


  • While civilian casualties have risen to over 6,000 and the country is threatened by famine, neighboring states like China are mostly pursuing their own interests in the region.


  • Elections announced for 2025 could lead to further escalations of violence, and an overthrow of the junta could create a dangerous power vacuum.

     

Perhaps the most surreal video of a coup ever recorded dates back to Feb. 1, 2021 – the day Myanmar’s military seized power. A young influencer filmed herself performing aerobic exercises at a street intersection in the capital Naypyidaw. In the background, armored military vehicles can be seen rolling toward parliament; the young woman said later that she had thought nothing of it. The video went viral, bringing global attention to Myanmar’s latest military takeover – even among those with little interest in Southeast Asian politics.


Four years ago, the military overthrew the elected government of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who had pledged to usher in a new democratic era in 2015. The coup was followed by mass protests, and just a few weeks later, the country spiraled into civil war – a conflict that has continued ever since.


© Youtube

«NZZ Pro» – Geopolitical briefing 

 

The situation: Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has been mired in a bloody civil war, with the military junta, rebels and ethnic militias locked in a battle for control.

    

Geopolitical dynamics: China, India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are pursuing their own strategic interests while steering clear of direct intervention – leaving Myanmar a geopolitical tinderbox.

    

Looking ahead: The election scheduled for 2025 could trigger further violence, while the junta’s collapse risks creating a chaotic power vacuum.


The situation in Myanmar is constantly shifting and remains largely overlooked in the West. The military junta is bombing civilian areas, while rebel forces have pushed their military opponents out of vast swathes of territory. More than 6,000 civilians have been killed, and over three million have been displaced. What is happening in Myanmar right now? And what lies ahead?

Source: ACLED / NZZ / jum.
Source: ACLED / NZZ / jum.

The historical backdrop


Understanding Myanmar’s civil war requires a look at its modern history. The country is one of Southeast Asia’s most ethnically diverse, home to roughly 135 distinct groups. Since gaining independence from the British in 1948, there have been repeated armed clashes between the various groups. This is partly due to promises made to various ethnic groups for a degree of autonomy when Myanmar gained independence. However, the state’s founders established a centralized system instead. Historian Thant Myint-U once described Myanmar as an «unfinished nation» where identity struggles have fueled war, poverty and isolation.


From the start, the country’s ruling elite has relied on military power to hold the fragile state together. After independence, their priority was strengthening the armed forces, leading to a stark imbalance between military dominance and weak civilian institutions, as political scientist Aurel Croissant has noted. In 1962, just two years after the initial establishment of a democratically elected government, the generals staged a coup and seized power.


For decades, Myanmar’s military rulers controlled the country – sometimes overtly, sometimes from behind the scenes. In 1988, they executed those who took to the streets to protest for greater freedom. Beyond securing their political grip, the generals also took control of key industries and cemented their influence through structural reforms. In 2008, they altered the constitution to ensure that 25% of parliamentary seats were filled by the military, effectively giving the generals a right of veto. In 2015, the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won the elections. Cautious reforms followed, until the military seized power once again five years later, citing unproven allegations of electoral fraud.


The rebels


Recruits of the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA) preparing for battle in a military camp in the middle of a bamboo forest in March 2024. © Reuters
Recruits of the Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA) preparing for battle in a military camp in the middle of a bamboo forest in March 2024. © Reuters

Tracking Myanmar’s myriad rebel groups is no easy task. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an initiative that collects data on various conflicts around the globe, more than 2,600 groups have emerged since the 2021 coup. Many were founded by local politicians, student activists and protesters who fled into the jungle to wage guerrilla warfare against the army. Ethnic armed organizations had been active in the country before 2021, already engaged in fighting the state and seeking autonomy within their territories. The most important of these are located in the regions of Rakhine, Kachin and in the north of Shan, but also in Kayin in the south of the country.


Source: ACLED / NZZ / sro.
Source: ACLED / NZZ / sro.

These ethnic armed organizations have inflicted painful losses on the military in recent months. They now not only control larger areas, but also crucial border crossings – to China in the north and to Bangladesh in the west. Today, the military controls a smaller area of Myanmar than at any time since the 1960s.


These ethnic groups have years of experience in financing their guerrilla warfare, whether through drug trafficking (methamphetamines have replaced heroin as Myanmar's top export) or the overexploitation of natural resources. Their cooperation with newly formed rebel groups has created communities of purpose, with the different groups benefiting from each other. These new groups supply the ethnic armies with an ongoing influx of fighters, and they are consistently attacking military bases together. In turn, the new rebel groups receive training from the ethnic armies and benefit from their combat experience.


This cooperation is fragile, however, and there have been repeated battles between the various insurgents. The groups’ individual war aims diverge as well. Many of the new rebel groups have united under the National Unity Government (NUG), a Myanmar shadow government that has made it its goal to overthrow the junta. The ethnic armed organizations, however, are primarily concerned with controlling their own territories. This is evident from the only tentative advances into the junta-controlled interior of Myanmar, in which the ethnic armies have little interest – partly because they would be vulnerable to the military's airstrikes.


Source: ACLED / NZZ / sro.
Source: ACLED / NZZ / sro.

The civilian population


The U.N. estimates the civilian death toll in Myanmar at over 6,000. According to the U.N., 2,000 people alone were executed while in military custody. At least 365 people were shot in the head; 215 were burned alive. International observers are racing to document widespread atrocities – including torture, beheadings, rapes and other crimes against humanity.


«Increasingly frequent and indiscriminate air strikes, artillery and drone attacks have killed civilians, driven survivors from their homes, and destroyed hospitals, schools and places of worship,» writes Nicholas Koumjian, head of the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar, the U.N.'s investigative office for the region. «While most of the evidence the Mechanism has collected concerns crimes committed by the Myanmar military, we are also investigating disturbing reports of atrocities committed by other armed groups, including rape, killings and torture,» he continues.


As if all this were not enough, the country is also on the verge of a famine. The local economy, including agriculture, has collapsed. Next summer 15 million people in Myanmar could be threatened by hunger, warn analysts from IPC, a platform for mapping global hunger.


The neighbors


China plays an important yet undecided role in Myanmar. «China is supporting the junta, even though without enthusiasm, and continues to sell weapons to it. But it also supports to some extent some of the powerful ethnic groups operating along its borders,» says David Mathieson, a longtime Myanmar expert. In 2024, Beijing brokered a ceasefire, but it unraveled within five months. In January, the junta announced a new ceasefire between the military and one of the ethnic armed organizations, with China acting as mediator once again.


In November, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing traveled to China – not for a state visit, but for a regional summit, a move that could signal Beijing’s view of him as a key figure in efforts to manage the crisis. China has no interest in a civil war on its border, and certainly not one with broader geopolitical consequences.


Yet the ethnic armies along the Chinese border hold significant leverage over their neighbor. They control infrastructure and mines built by China that are located in China's sphere of influence. According to Mathieson, China keeps reminding the leaders of these ethnic armies that they should not seek support from the West. China wants to maintain control over conflict mediation along its border and for now, Western peace initiatives are ineffective, he says.


China recognizes that it has influence over Myanmar, says Mathieson, «but it doesn’t want the burden of having to solve a civil war.» It just wants to influence the trajectory of such a war so that it can prioritize its investments and strategic interests.


Meanwhile, the regional powers – the states forming the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – have struggled for years to find a unified strategy for Myanmar. The only clear consensus appears to be maintaining their economically focused, cooperative union without letting the Myanmar issue cause division. Malaysia has held ASEAN’s annually rotating chairmanship since the start of the year. At an early meeting, the Malaysian foreign minister issued a call for peace, stating somewhat helplessly: «Malaysia wants to know what Myanmar has in mind.»


India, which also shares a border with Myanmar, continues to sell weapons to the junta, despite well-documented human rights violations.


The road ahead


 National, state and regional flags line a street in Yangon ahead of a holiday in February. © Nyein Chan Naing / EPA
 National, state and regional flags line a street in Yangon ahead of a holiday in February. © Nyein Chan Naing / EPA

Myanmar’s military junta has announced an election for 2025, but critics argue it is little more than a bid to legitimize its rule. Only parties that have been vetted by the junta are allowed to take part in the election. In addition, only half the country is likely to vote – voter lists could only be drawn up in 145 out of 330 municipalities. But the election is nonetheless set to move forward. Observers warn that violence could escalate in the coming months as the vote approaches. Rebel groups might attack voters and politicians, while the military could seek quick territorial gains to generate success stories ahead of the election.


Beyond domestic control, the junta is also seeking international validation, says Mathieson, particularly from China, the ASEAN states and India. How Western governments will respond remains unclear, in his view. They could view the election as an opportunity to reestablish contact with the junta, which has so far refused any diplomatic mediation. Mathieson calls this a «folly,» pointing to the West’s lack of a clear plan for Myanmar.


The junta is unlikely to collapse anytime soon. It appears to be strong enough to hold off the rebels, at least within its strongholds in the country's interior. Internal divisions are also unlikely to bring it down – outwardly, the junta shows few signs of fracturing, and little is known about its internal dynamics. A prolonged civil war in the heart of Asia appears the more probable outcome.


And even if the junta were to fall, then what? The ethnic armed organizations would likely maintain control over their own territories, Mathieson says, «but violent anarchy would probably break out in Myanmar's interior.»


© 2025 Neue Zürcher Zeitung.



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