By EMANUEL FABIAN, TOI STAFF and AGENCIES
12 August 2024, 4:04 am
People walk past a billboard showing a portrait of newly appointed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (top) next to Palestine Square in Tehran on August 12, 2024. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)
Several reports Sunday evening indicated that Israel was expecting a major Iranian attack to be launched within days, though the military sought to downplay this by stressing that instructions to civilians were unchanged.
The reports marked a reversal of the previous prevailing assumption, which had been that the Islamic Republic — under heavy international pressure — had given up its initial intention to launch an imminent large-scale attack in response to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, which Israel has not confirmed or denied carrying out.
Instead, Iran had been expected to leave the response to Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group, whose top military commander Fuad Shukr was killed by Israel in an airstrike in Beirut several hours before Haniyeh’s assassination. Israel blamed Shukr for being behind many attacks on civilians, including a rocket strike last month that killed 12 children in a soccer field in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights.
Palestine Square in Tehran on August 12, 2024. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)
Several reports Sunday evening indicated that Israel was expecting a major Iranian attack to be launched within days, though the military sought to downplay this by stressing that instructions to civilians were unchanged.
The reports marked a reversal of the previous prevailing assumption, which had been that the Islamic Republic — under heavy international pressure — had given up its initial intention to launch an imminent large-scale attack in response to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, which Israel has not confirmed or denied carrying out.
Instead, Iran had been expected to leave the response to Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group, whose top military commander Fuad Shukr was killed by Israel in an airstrike in Beirut several hours before Haniyeh’s assassination. Israel blamed Shukr for being behind many attacks on civilians, including a rocket strike last month that killed 12 children in a soccer field in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights.
But the Axios news site, citing two unnamed sources familiar with the details, reported Sunday that Israel’s current assessment was that Iran would launch a direct attack on the country within days, possibly before renewed ceasefire-hostage deal talks are held on Thursday.
The report said that the issue was divisive within Iran. President Masoud Pezeshkian wants to avoid a harsh response, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps wants to launch a larger attack than it did on April 13-14, when hundreds of drones and missile were launched in Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel.
Almost all the projectiles and UAVs were intercepted during that attack.
One of the sources cited in the report said the situation was “still fluid” due to the disagreements.
The report said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had spoken Sunday with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and told him Iran’s military preparations suggested Iran was getting ready for a large-scale attack on Israel.
The Pentagon later confirmed that the call took place, adding that Austin had ordered the deployment of the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the Middle East amid the escalating tensions. Announcing the movements of a submarine is rare for the US.
In a statement, the Pentagon added that Austin had also ordered the Abraham Lincoln strike group to accelerate its deployment to the region.
Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, said Austin spoke with Gallant and reiterated America’s commitment “to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of US military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions.”
The Lincoln, which has been in the Asia Pacific, had already been ordered to the region to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group, which is scheduled to begin heading back to the US. Last week, Austin said the Lincoln would arrive in the Central Command area by the end of the month.
It wasn’t clear Sunday what Austin’s latest order meant, or how much more quickly the Lincoln would steam to the Middle East. The carrier has F-35 fighter jets aboard, along with the F/A-18 fighter aircraft that are also on carriers.
Ryder also did not say how quickly the USS Georgia guided-missile submarine would get to the region.
Asked by reporters on Saturday “What’s your message to Iran?” US President Joe Biden mouthed “Don’t.”
Meanwhile, the Kan public broadcaster and Channel 13 news also reported Sunday evening that Israel’s updated assessment was that Tehran intends to launch a major attack this week.
Channel 13 reported, without citing sources, that there could be a combined attack by Iran and Hezbollah, whether simultaneously or successively. The network said one factor that had delayed the promised response to the assassinations of the terror chiefs was French pressure on Iran and Hezbollah not to launch a major attack during the Paris Olympics, which wrapped up on Sunday.
Despite the growing talk of a looming large attack, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Sunday evening that there were no changes to emergency guidelines for civilians.
“Following the latest reports regarding Iran’s plans, we clarify that, at this stage, there are no changes to the Home Front Command guidelines,” Hagari said on X.
“The IDF and the defense establishment monitor our enemies and the developments in the Middle East, with an emphasis on Iran and Hezbollah, and constantly assess the situation,” he said, adding that troops were “deployed and prepared with a high level of readiness.”
“If it becomes necessary to change the instructions, we will update in an orderly message on the official channels,” Hagari added.
The skyrocketing tensions have seen many major airlines cancel or delay their flights to Israel and to other countries in the region.
Earlier on Sunday, Gallant told military combat recruits that Israel would operate in ways it has never operated before if it were to be attacked in an unprecedented way by Iran and Hezbollah.
“We have significant capabilities. I hope they take this into account and don’t bring about a war on additional fronts,” he told the recruits at the Tel Hashomer military base.
He added that Israel was fighting for its existence in a “hostile environment.”
He emphasized to the recruits that they were enlisting at both a “challenging” and “significant” point in history.
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