Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets with Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik in Belgrade, Serbia, on Jan. 17, 2019. MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/AFP via Getty Images
Genocide Warning:
Verdict in the Trial of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik
By Kolby Phillip
On February 26, 2025, the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina will issue a verdict in the trial of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik and the former acting director of Republika Srpska’s Official Gazette, Milos Lucic.
Milorad Dodik became Republika Srpska’s president in 2010. He was re-elected in 2022, and is serving his third term. His secessionist and anti-western rhetoric, such as calling for the “unification” of Serbs in Bosnia with neighboring Serbia, led former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to label him as being on a Putin-esque authoritarian path. Dodik is a vehement denier of the Srebrenica Genocide, which he describes as a “fabricated myth.”
The Charges Against & the Trial of Dodik
Dodik was indicted in August 2023 for defying the rulings of Christian Schmidt, the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina under the Dayton Accords. The position of High Representative was created in the aftermath of the 1992-1995 Bosnian War to oversee the implementation of the Accords. Annex 10 of the Dayton Accords gives the High Representative power to cancel laws or remove officials threatening Bosnia’s peace.
Dodik proposed two laws to the Bosnian National Assembly that would weaken the Bosnian federal government’s authority. Schmidt blocked both laws. The first law would have prevented enforcement in Republika Srpska of the rulings of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Constitutional Court. The second law would have allowed Republika Srpska to disregard all decisions made by the High Representative.
Dodik’s defense lawyer Goran Bubic has labeled the trial as overtly “political”, with the “clear aim…to eliminate…Dodik from political life in Bosnia.”
Prosecutor Nedim Cosic is seeking a prison sentence of five years for Dodik and a ten-year ban on Dodik holding public office. In his closing at trial, Cosic argued, “The defendants acted with full awareness that they were obstructing the decisions of the High Representative, which is a criminal act.”
Dodik has already announced that he will not attend the reading of the verdict. He will also not obey the verdict.
Threats Coming from Republika Srpska Officials and Authoritarian Foreign Leaders
Threats of secession from Bosnia are common among Dodik and Republika Srpska officials, but they have never been acted upon. Dodik’s looming conviction, imprisonment, and removal from office make the threats from Dodik’s allies of a “swift reaction” to the verdict appear increasingly likely.
On February 17, 2025, Republika Srpska officials issued a public statement announcing that “in response to every verdict of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina,…all Serb representatives…as well as all [Serb] employees…will withdraw from the joint institutions [of Bosnia and Herzegovina] and stop working." “The verdict will be against Republika Srpska, [not Dodik].”
Dodik has received political support from fellow authoritarian leaders. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said, “political attacks on Dodik should stop now, and he should stop being punished.” Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated his hope that the Court “would make ‘wise decisions’ in order to prevent Bosnia’s further destabilisation.”
On the trial’s final day, Dodik directed an ominous message to the trial judge: “Your verdict will determine the future of Bosnia.” He also said he was “not threatening anyone, but…[he is] ready to go all the way.”
Bosnia and Herzegovina is threatened by Dodik and the Republika Srpska’s secessionist rhetoric. Bosnia is at Stage 6: Polarization, and Stage 7: Preparation, for possible ethnic violence following the Dodik verdict.
Genocide Watch recommends that:
The Bosnian Court should issue a verdict unaffected by threats from Republika Srpska officials.
The verdict should be based solely on evidence at trial and should uphold the rule of law.
The US and EU should impose new sanctions on Dodik and Republika Srpska officials for undermining and violating the Dayton peace agreement.
NATO should monitor potential ethnic violence in Bosnia and offer full support to the Bosnian government.