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March 30, 2025

March 30, 2025

In a public address today, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem responded to the recent bombing of Beirut: “This aggression must end. Israel…bombed Beirut's southern suburbs for the first time since the truce…we cannot allow this to continue…If Israel believes it can impose a new equation by using false pretexts…to attack the south, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of Beirut, this is unacceptable.”


Netanyahu claimed that Israel “respects” Lebanon and its army, and “Therefore we demand from them things that you demand from someone you respect,” in this case referencing the recent rocket fire from southern Lebanon targeting Israel but probably referring more broadly to the disarmament of Hezbollah.


Lebanon has acted on the recent rocket launch targeting Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel, with the country’s General Security agency announcing that it had “arrested a number of suspects, and the relevant authorities have begun investigations with them to determine responsibility and take the appropriate legal measures.”


Following the establishment of a transitional constitution, Al-Sharaa announced the creation of an interim government with twenty-three top-level appointments, expanding on the previously established provisional cabinet. While the cabinet remains filled with HTS loyalists, it now includes a larger diversity in represented communities, though they appear somewhat tokenized. These representatives include the Druze Minister of Agriculture, Amgad Badr; the Alawite Minister of Transportation, Yarub Badr; the Christian and woman Minister of Social Affairs and Labor; and the Kurdish Minister of Education, Mohammad Abdulrahman Terko. Notably, he also created a new ministerial role for White Hat head Raed al-Saleh, who was dedicated to responding to emergencies in the country. The AANES, which is affiliated with the Kurdish-dominated and American-backed SDF armed group, rejected the new government because it didn’t adequately represent the people of Syria and didn’t have sufficient limitations on centralized authority. At the moment, there is no national legislature or judiciary in Syria capable of providing a check on an empowered al-Sharaa, something analysts have been concerned about due to his organization’s history of authoritarian ideology.


Hamas today confirmed that they had previously received a proposal for a renewed ceasefire with Israel, announcing that they had approved the deal and expressing hope that Israel “will not obstruct it.” Netanyahu’s office has similarly confirmed receiving this proposal but rejected it while providing a counteroffer. Given the collapse of the previous agreement and speculation that Netanyahu may not want to exacerbate tensions with his coalition allies, who generally favor war with Hamas, it is unlikely that a lasting ceasefire can be reached at this time. At the very least, for a ceasefire to last, Netanyahu would probably need some assurance that Hamas could not quickly reconstitute, preferably through disarmament. However, Hamas insisted that “The weapons of the resistance are a red line,” preemptively ruling out disarmament as an end-game condition.


Regardless, Hamas may still be forced into an unfavorable position if the recent public backlash against the renewed hostilities continues. Netanyahu is supposedly seeing this play out, claiming today that “We can see cracks beginning to appear” in Hamas’ camp during negotiations. However, he may also have been motivated to make these comments by the protests in major cities like Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, as many Israelis resent the resumption of hostilities and favor a negotiated approach to the release of hostages.


Macron held a phone call with Netanyahu today where he stated that “The release of all hostages [in Gaza] and Israel’s security are a priority for France,” and therefore called on Netanyahu to “to end the strikes on Gaza and to return to the ceasefire” and added that “humanitarian aid must resume immediately.” He also reasserted France’s policy against “any forced displacement or annexation” of Gaza.


In light of Tehran’s continued refusal to negotiate with the Trump Administration under its policy of a “maximum pressure” sanctions regime, NBC Today revealed Trump’s comments during an interview: “If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.” There are reports that the US and Israel have been considering and preparing for a preemptive bombing of Iran if it continues to refuse to negotiate on the nuclear file. Such an event would be an act of war and would almost certainly prioritize firstly Iranian nuclear facilities and secondarily traditional military hubs. While these strikes would undoubtedly place a significant setback on Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon, it is also unlikely to effectively halt it, and such an escalation would almost certainly accelerate a decision from Ayatollah Khamenei to remove an existing fatwa against the construction of nuclear weapons. Further, it will undoubtedly invigorate the Axis of Resistance to resume hostilities targeting Israel, American forces in the region, and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Iran claims that it would be open to a resumption of the previous nuclear deal, from which the previous Trump Administration withdrew if Washington relaxed its sanctions: something the US has refused to do.


Hundreds of thousands of people continue to gather in Türkiye today in continued protest against Imoglu’s arrest. CHP president Ozgur Ozel gave a speech in Istanbul rallying the political opposition’s supporters and vowed to gather the required number of signatures to force early elections, thus moving them up from 2028 while the CHP and its allies have an invigorated base, not least of all due to Imoglu’s arrest.

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